Author Topic: Ukrajina '22  (Read 10432 times)

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Offline Tedimed

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #70 on: March 21, 2022, 09:37:00 am »
Mozes slobodno i ovo da procistas.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/09/opinion/ukraine-russia-invasion-west.html

Meni NY Times trazi da platim da ovo procitam, tako da cu preskociti😀

Offline starr

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #71 on: March 21, 2022, 10:13:45 am »
Meni NY Times trazi da platim da ovo procitam, tako da cu preskociti😀

By Ross Douthat
Opinion Columnist

It’s a curious feature of Western debate since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that a school of thought that predicted some version of this conflict has been depicted as discredited by the partial fulfillment of its prophecies.

From the 1990s to the 2010s, from George Kennan’s opposition to NATO expansion to John Mearsheimer’s critique of American involvement in Ukraine, thinkers associated with foreign policy realism — the school known for its cold-eyed expectation of great power conflict, its doubts about idealistic visions of world order — argued that the attempt to integrate Russia’s borderlands into Western institutions and alliances was poisoning relations with Moscow, making great-power conflict more likely, and exposing nations like Ukraine to disastrous risks.

“The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path,” Mearsheimer averred in 2015, “and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.”

But now that Ukraine is, in fact, being wrecked by a Russian invasion, there’s a widespread view that his realist worldview lies in ruins too — that Mearsheimer has “lost his reputation and credibility” (to quote the Portuguese thinker Bruno Maçães) and that the realist conception of nations as “pieces in a game of Risk” with “eternal interests or permanent geopolitical orientations, fixed motivations or predictable goals” (to quote Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic) should be discarded on the evidence of Vladimir Putin’s invasion and the Ukrainian response.

The larger critique of realism that Applebaum and Maçães are speaking for goes something like this: Yes, realists like Mearsheimer predicted some kind of conflict over Ukraine. But realism’s predictions still did not describe reality, for three reasons. First, the predictions imagined a defensive logic to Russian strategic conduct, oriented around the protection of a sphere of influence, a fear of encirclement by NATO. But the decision to invade seems to have been motivated more by Putin’s professed and very personal desire to restore a mystical vision of greater Russia — a grand ideological idea that the mere Western pledge not to admit Ukraine to NATO was unlikely to appease.

Second, the realist predictions underestimated the agency and strength of Ukrainians themselves, treating Russia’s near abroad as a landscape where only great-power force projection really mattered, ignoring Ukraine’s potential capacity — now demonstrated on the battlefield — to resist Russia and rally global support even without direct military support from the United States or NATO.

Finally, the realist predictions drained the moral dimension out of global politics, effectively legitimizing imperialist appetites and “blaming the victim,” as it were, when the moral responsibility for aggression ultimately rests with the aggressor, not with nations merely seeking self-determination or mutual defense.

As someone who considers himself a realist (to the extent that it makes sense for a newspaper columnist to claim such affinities), I think part of this critique has bite. For instance, my sense is that because today’s realist thinkers mostly operate within the liberal West and define themselves against its pieties — especially the globalist utopianism that had so much purchase in the post-Cold War era — there is a constant temptation to assume that nonliberal regimes must be more rational actors, more realist in their practices and aims, than the naïve idealists in America or Europe. And thus when a crisis comes, it must be the unrealism of the West that’s primarily, even essentially, at fault.

You can see this temptation at work in the interview Mearsheimer gave to Isaac Chotiner of The New Yorker, published soon after the Russian invasion began. On the one hand the interview offers a perspicacious realist critique of how idealism led America astray in the George W. Bush era, via a naïve theory of how aggressive war might democratize in the Middle East.

But then when it comes to Putin’s aggressive war, Mearsheimer seems to assume that the Russian president thinks like him, the realist, rather than like the utopian politicians of the West. Putin, he says, “understands that he cannot conquer Ukraine and integrate it into a greater Russia or into a reincarnation of the former Soviet Union.” And if the United States only worked harder “to create friendly relations” with Moscow, Mearsheimer argues, there could be a tacit American-Russian “balancing coalition” against the rising power of China.

But why should Putin necessarily be immune from the hubris and delusions of Western leaders? Why should we assume that he doesn’t dream of reintegrating Ukraine and Belarus into a greater Russia? Why should we take for granted that the right diplomatic strategy will bring him into an American coalition against China, when he might instead be committed to a sweeping ideological vision of Eurasian power aligned against the decadent West?

Why should we assume, in other words, that structural and schematic explanations of Putin’s war are more important than personal and ideological explanations? After all, as the historian Adam Tooze points out, it appears that very few members of the Russian foreign policy elite — all presumably opponents of NATO expansion, all “devotees to Russia’s future as a great power” — actually believed that Putin would invade. And if so many participants in Putin’s regime, all good servants of the national interest as realists define it, wouldn’t have made his fateful choice, then did realist premises actually predict the war itself?

Just as important, did they predict the way the war has played out so far? I myself did not: My assumption was that Ukraine might mount a strong resistance in the western part of its territory, but that Russia would sweep pretty easily to the Dnieper and probably put Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to flight. (Some version of this assumption was shared by U.S. intelligence, which was predicting the quick fall of Kyiv two days into the war.) After almost two weeks of stalled-out offensives and mounting Russian casualties, that faulty assumption does look a bit like a Risk-board view of the world, where all that matters is positioning and pieces, not patriotism, morale, leadership and luck.

And there are a lot of ways that this kind of Risk-board mentality can deceive. Flash back a few decades, for instance, to the late Cold War, and a crude realist analysis might have insisted that Poland would always be in some kind of deep thrall to Russia — because it had so often been dominated by Moscow, its geography left it so open to invasion from the east, and so on — and that it was strategic folly to imagine otherwise. But Polish leadership and patriotism, Soviet weakness and unexpected historical events all contrived to change that calculus, so that today Poland’s strategic independence and Western alignment, while hardly invulnerable, both look relatively secure.

Is it unrealistic for Kyiv to aspire to what Warsaw has gained? Right now I would still say yes. But is it impossible, in the way that some realist thinking tends to suggest — as though some law of physics binds Ukraine to Russia? No: I think anyone watching this war so far, watching both the struggles of the Russian military and the solidifying of a Ukrainian national consciousness, would have to give more credit to long-term Ukrainian ambitions, and a little less to the inevitability of Russian regional dominance.

So those are two places where realist theory, or at least certain intellectual temptations associated with realism, has suffered from its contact with the reality of war so far.

But now let me say something in realism’s defense. What we have learned this winter is that aggressive Russian power is weaker, and united Western power stronger, than a lot of prewar analysis assumed — meaning that American decline and European decadence are not so far advanced as it has sometimes lately seemed.

But look at the global response to the war in Ukraine — the tacit support for Russia from Beijing, the neutrality of India, the cautious, self-interested reactions of the Gulf States — and you still see the landscape whose emergence probably encouraged Putin to make his gamble: a world where American hegemony is fading, where new great powers and “civilization-states” are bent on pursuing their own interests, and where 1990s-era dreams of moral universalism and liberal consensus are giving way to hard realities of cultural difference, moral relativism and post-liberal political competition.

Indeed, even the rallying of Europe against Russia, the talk of rearmament and energy independence, fits this mold, because it represents a dawning recognition of continental interest as much as a stirring of cosmopolitan idealism. Yes, the inspirational example of Zelensky matters, but the fundamental reality is that under conditions of threat and competition, Europe is cutting short its holiday from history and beginning to behave like a great power in its own right — just as realist theory would predict.

And if those threatening and competitive conditions are somewhat more favorable to the West than it appeared three weeks ago, they are still fundamentally hostile to the kind of crusading liberalism that was so powerful in the Clinton and Bush presidencies and lingered in the Obama years. What we have gained so far from Russia’s stumbles is the chance at a more favorable balance of power in a multipolar world, and that’s a very good thing. But the war is far from over, and the most plausible “good” outcome is still a realist’s peace, not an idealist’s triumph — one that will still probably leave Putin in power, with Crimea and the Donbas in his hands, and Russia more integrated with (and subordinate to) our rivals in Beijing.

Are we allowed to hope for a better outcome, where Russians rise up, democratic revolution flowers and (in the poetry of the 1990s) “hope and history rhyme”? Certainly: A realism that cannot allow for idealistic possibilities is itself unreal. But in a conflict with a nuclear power, fought on its own borderlands, to seek that ideal outcome as a primary goal — to pursue total victory and regime change rather than provisional stability — is to court disasters worse than the ones that have befallen us in any recent war.

And if realism didn’t anticipate everything about the current situation, it still has this fundamental insight to offer: The revolutionary moments in history are also the exceptional ones, and the most important task of statesmen is to prevent moments of great crisis from yielding tragedies too terrible to bear.

Offline sabotage

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #72 on: March 21, 2022, 10:26:51 am »

The larger critique of realism that Applebaum and Maçães are speaking for goes something like this: Yes, realists like Mearsheimer predicted some kind of conflict over Ukraine. But realism’s predictions still did not describe reality, for three reasons. First, the predictions imagined a defensive logic to Russian strategic conduct, oriented around the protection of a sphere of influence, a fear of encirclement by NATO. But the decision to invade seems to have been motivated more by Putin’s professed and very personal desire to restore a mystical vision of greater Russia — a grand ideological idea that the mere Western pledge not to admit Ukraine to NATO was unlikely to appease.

Second, the realist predictions underestimated the agency and strength of Ukrainians themselves, treating Russia’s near abroad as a landscape where only great-power force projection really mattered, ignoring Ukraine’s potential capacity — now demonstrated on the battlefield — to resist Russia and rally global support even without direct military support from the United States or NATO.

Finally, the realist predictions drained the moral dimension out of global politics, effectively legitimizing imperialist appetites and “blaming the victim,” as it were, when the moral responsibility for aggression ultimately rests with the aggressor, not with nations merely seeking self-determination or mutual defense.
Kakvi argumenti, kakva logicka matrica, kakvo istorijsko-iskustveno uporiste.  :worthy: :worthy: :worthy:



i za kraj jos jedan red koji najbolje sabira pogled autora

Quote
Are we allowed to hope for a better outcome, where Russians rise up, democratic revolution flowers and (in the poetry of the 1990s) “hope and history rhyme”? Certainly: A realism that cannot allow for idealistic possibilities is itself unreal. But in a conflict with a nuclear power, fought on its own borderlands, to seek that ideal outcome as a primary goal — to pursue total victory and regime change rather than provisional stability — is to court disasters worse than the ones that have befallen us in any recent war.
"Give us a blade of grass, we'll defend it, or attack. We got a blade there. Good to have a little fortune sometimes."

Offline Tedimed

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #73 on: March 21, 2022, 02:18:46 pm »
By Ross Douthat
Opinion Columnistar.

Hvala! Meni valjda cita US IP pa trazi da se plati da citas. Pretpostavljam da je to.

Offline starr

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #74 on: March 21, 2022, 02:40:25 pm »
Hvala! Meni valjda cita US IP pa trazi da se plati da citas. Pretpostavljam da je to.


Nije to nego ne koristiš ekstenziju za browser kao što je Bypass Paywalls Clean :D

Offline Tedimed

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #75 on: March 21, 2022, 02:58:13 pm »
To sigirno ne koristim.  :D

Offline mladenko

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #76 on: March 21, 2022, 07:12:41 pm »
To sigirno ne koristim.  :D
Ili jednostavno da odeš ovde.

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Offline Tedimed

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #77 on: March 21, 2022, 07:33:36 pm »
 :worthy:

Obozavam ovaj forum!!!!
Hvala puno. Ovo je fenomenalno.
Sta bih ja bez vas ljudi, ali stvarno👍
Nije otvorio NY Times, ali svejedno, odlican tool.

Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #78 on: March 21, 2022, 10:42:49 pm »
Ja čekam da Oliver Stoun snimi dokumentarac o ovom ratu. On nikada nije bio pristrasan.
Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline lordnex

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #79 on: March 22, 2022, 10:30:22 am »

Offline starr

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #80 on: March 22, 2022, 10:41:32 am »
To je dobar video. A i kanal je odličan.

Offline starr

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #81 on: March 23, 2022, 04:58:32 pm »

Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #82 on: March 23, 2022, 06:46:02 pm »
Ja nisam nikada hteo da gledam slike. Da je upola loše kao što pišu, to je kataklizma tamo. Svi smo znali šta Mariupolj predstavlja za Ruse i pričali da neće ostati kamen na kamenu. Velika glupost ukrajinskog rukovodstva što su dozvolili da do ovoga dođe. I danas tvrdim da je trebalo da se predaju, kao Francuska u WW2 i čekaju neko bolje vreme za rešavanje problema. Rusi su stoka kao i NATO. Nisu smeli da budu toliko glupi i zarate sa njima.

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Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline omiljeni

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #83 on: March 23, 2022, 10:11:55 pm »
izvesni Antolij Čubajs, volođin specijalni izaslanik za nešto i nešto, izgleda utekao iz Rusije
ministra odbrane Šojgua niko nije video u javnsti već 12 dana
jedan moskovski tabloid pre 2 dana objavio da imaju 10.000 poginulih vojnika i preko 16000 ranjenih.
operacija teče po planu, ruska vojska najjača, ne verujte ništa twiteru i prozapadnim medijima


Šampion Endzone III-B lige za 2007.godinu!

Šampion Endzone III-B lige za 2021.godinu!

Offline Nikša

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #84 on: March 23, 2022, 10:50:55 pm »
Pratim samo djola vukadinovic vlahovica i generala lazarevica.

Offline Pablo

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #85 on: April 11, 2022, 01:31:17 am »
Jel provaljuje neko da su ovi (britanci i ameri) rešili da zatalasaju situaciju oko Srbije? Najnovije iz kuhinje je da je Zukorlić otrovan  :rofl:

Offline omiljeni

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #86 on: April 11, 2022, 03:14:15 pm »
De bre provaljujemo, nema odje niko ni 2% tvog talenta za provaljivanje
Daj sad detalje jebiga. Jesu ga Britanci i Amerikanci otrovali ili oni sad samo izmišljaju da je otrovan da bi optuzili nekog drugog?


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Offline lordnex

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #87 on: April 11, 2022, 03:37:47 pm »
pa Ukrajinci su ga valjda otrovali?

Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #88 on: April 11, 2022, 06:00:52 pm »
Nisu Ukrajinci, nego Čečeni. Problem je što su namestili tako da izgleda kao da su ga Ukrajinci otrovali. Pokušali su i Rasima da smaknu juče, ali sam Alah ga je spasio. Bez Muftije i Raleta Raška bi pukla kao bure baruta. Ta vatra bi se prelila i na BiH, što je krajnji cilj Mari Lepen pred drugi krug izbora u Francuskoj. Njenom pobedom bi bili prekinuti svi LGBTQ+ planovi o "Multikulturalnom društvu Evrope". Oživele bi se nove stare kolonije, privreda EU bi izašla iz recesije, a dolar izgubio vrednost uz nezapamćenu inflaciju u SAD. Amerikanci sve ovo u svetu rade da bi sprečili upravo ovaj scenario.
Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline Nikša

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #89 on: April 11, 2022, 06:12:41 pm »
A uz sve to i Krisotfer Hil bas dolazi sad iz penzije da bude ambasador. Zanimljivo...

Offline Old School

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #90 on: April 11, 2022, 08:25:06 pm »
Pametnom dosta.

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Offline Pablo

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #91 on: April 11, 2022, 10:24:50 pm »
Kako sve puca od vrcavosti  :rock:

Offline Pablo

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #92 on: April 22, 2022, 08:27:08 pm »
 :rofl:



Šta se sve izdešavalo za ova 2 meseca ali nisam ni sanjao da će Indijci krenuti da se sprdaju sa Britancima, dotle je došlo. Inače je Bokica je trebao da ubedi Indijce da pređu na drugu stranu  :lol:

Offline Pablo

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #93 on: May 15, 2022, 09:07:55 pm »


Im in love, love, love  :wub: :wub: :wub:


Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #94 on: May 15, 2022, 10:21:36 pm »
Ovo ko početak klipa rađenog za Reality Kings.

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Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline zujo23

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #95 on: May 16, 2022, 07:46:41 am »
Šta kažete za ove lažne dojave o bombama u najpre avionima, pa onda tržnim centrima i školama (jutros mlađi klinja ne ode u školu zbog dojave o bombi)

Navodno sve te dojave stižu od Ukrajinaca i Poljaka, kao vrsta specijalnog rata zbog pozicije Srbije.

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Grakću gavrani -
još dublje u jaknu
uvlačim glavu.

Majčina senka
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loži peć u mraku.

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Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #96 on: May 16, 2022, 09:23:22 am »
Kažem da treba povećati plate policiji i BIA. Pojačati izgradnju "socijalnih stanova" koje će pripadnici MUP i BIA kupovati odloženo na 20 godina bez kamate, a onda ih izdavati, kako bi se još bolje borili protiv kriminala. Odlično rade svoj posao.
Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline starr

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #97 on: May 16, 2022, 09:38:03 am »
Pre neki dan u Čačku su uhapšeni neki Poljaci jer su navodno snimali fabriku "Sloboda"

Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #98 on: May 16, 2022, 09:42:44 am »
Bravo. Sjajan uspeh. Ruski agenti u svim porama vlasti, oni se hvale sa dva Poljaka.
Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline Reignman

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #99 on: May 16, 2022, 09:55:07 am »
Šta kažete za ove lažne dojave o bombama u najpre avionima, pa onda tržnim centrima i školama (jutros mlađi klinja ne ode u školu zbog dojave o bombi)

Navodno sve te dojave stižu od Ukrajinaca i Poljaka, kao vrsta specijalnog rata zbog pozicije Srbije.

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Mislim da pocioci koriste VPN kako bi izgledalo da su iz Ukrajine, Poljske...

Offline zujo23

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #100 on: May 16, 2022, 09:56:55 am »
Koliko sam ranije čuo, upravo koristite VPN da bi izgledalo da su iz drugih EU zemalja i Švajcarske, a ne iz Ukrajine i Poljske.

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Grakću gavrani -
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uvlačim glavu.

Majčina senka
preko cele sobe -
loži peć u mraku.

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"We make living based on what we get, and we make a life based on what we give" - Winston Churchill

Offline starr

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #101 on: May 16, 2022, 10:32:27 am »
Ma sve bi to njima palo na pamet tek tako. Očigledno je da rade po nečijem nalogu.

Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #102 on: May 16, 2022, 12:19:20 pm »
Naravno da rade po nalogu. Đilas i Šolak su najveći izdajnici. Zna se ko finansira Poljake. Šolak je prodao meč protiv Liverpula, samo da bi imao pare da plati VPN.

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Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline Sundjer Bob Kockalone

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #103 on: May 17, 2022, 11:35:02 am »
Do kada ćemo morati da peremo ruke, zna li se šta?
Amerika, za razliku od Srbije, nema dovojan broj testova na korona virus.

Offline Reignman

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Re: Ukrajina '22
« Reply #104 on: May 17, 2022, 03:07:37 pm »
Koliko sam ranije čuo, upravo koristite VPN da bi izgledalo da su iz drugih EU zemalja i Švajcarske, a ne iz Ukrajine i Poljske.

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cek bre, kako su onda iz Ukrajine i Poljske a sakrivaju svoje IP adrese iz VPNa ?

Ja u glavi imam scenarij da su to neki Putinoidi, koji koriste situaciju da huskaju hejt ka Ukrajini zbog Eurosonga, naravno!